Egypt’s Ministry of Finance: EGP 187.9 bn primary surplus and EGP 324.33 bn overall deficit in July–August 2026; how?

ENCC reconciles revenue, expenditure, interest and net financial assets, distinguishing cash, overall and primary balances and the annual GDP denominator.

Two balances, two different questions

The Ministry of Finance reported a primary surplus of about EGP 187.9 billion for July–August 2026 while the execution table records an overall deficit of 324.3275 billion. The figures are consistent: the primary balance excludes interest, whereas the overall balance includes it. ENCC reconstructs the relationship from table 11 in the October 2026 workbook, distinguishing the rounded narrative amount from a more detailed derived calculation. The institutional boundary is the budget sector, not every component of general government.

The fiscal-balance bridge · EGP billion
Item	Jul–Aug 2025	Jul–Aug 2026	Arithmetic change
Revenue	397.7675	533.2395	135.472
Total expenditure	754.946	849.087	94.141
Cash balance	-357.1785	-315.8475	41.331
Net acquisition of financial assets	7.914	8.48	0.566
Overall balance	-365.0925	-324.3275	40.765
Primary surplus (derived)	113.7365	187.8985	74.162
Interest	478.829	512.226	33.397

Source: table11. A negative balance denotes a deficit. Primary surplus = overall balance + interest, calculated by ENCC; the Ministry narrative reports rounded amounts of113.7 and187.9 billion.

From the cash balance to the overall deficit

Revenue of EGP 533.2395 billion less expenditure of 849.087 billion yields a negative cash balance of 315.8475 billion. Subtracting net acquisition of financial assets of 8.48 billion then produces the negative overall balance of 324.3275 billion. Simply subtracting expenditure from revenue and calling the result the overall deficit would omit an explicit adjustment. Net financial assets are a separate item in this bridge and must not be added again within expenditure categories.

Balances relative to the annual GDP denominator used by the source
Measure	2025 %	2026 %	Change (pp)
Overall balance	-1.7162	-1.3235	0.3927
Primary balance	0.5346	0.7668	0.2321

Source: table11 cell values before one-decimal display formatting. The numerator is a two-month flow and the denominator full-fiscal-year GDP; these are neither ratios to two-month GDP nor forecasts of the full-year deficit.

Interest connects the surplus and deficit

Adding interest of EGP 512.226 billion to the negative overall balance gives a derived primary surplus of 187.8985 billion, consistent with the Ministry’s rounded 187.9 billion. Equivalently, interest less the primary surplus equals the overall deficit. The primary balance helps assess the position before interest costs. It does not mean an equal amount of uncommitted cash remains after obligations, and it does not establish that borrowing or refinancing requirements have disappeared.

What improved against the same two months?

The overall deficit narrowed EGP 40.765 billion, from 365.0925 billion to 324.3275 billion. Revenue increased 135.472 billion while expenditure rose 94.141 billion, improving the cash balance by 41.331 billion. A 0.566 billion rise in net financial-asset acquisition reduced that improvement. The derived primary surplus rose from 113.7365 billion to 187.8985 billion, an increase of 74.162 billion; after the 33.397 billion increase in interest, the overall-balance improvement is 40.765 billion. This is an accounting reconciliation, not an isolated causal estimate of a particular reform.

GDP denominators and presentation differences

Workbook cells give overall balances of−1.7162% and−1.3235% of GDP and primary balances of 0.5346% and 0.7668%. The narrative rounds these to deficits of 1.7% and 1.3% and surpluses of 0.5% and 0.8%. Changes from unrounded cells are about 0.3927 and 0.2321 percentage points respectively; exact changes cannot be recovered from rounded endpoints alone. The numerator is two-month execution, whereas the denominator is the annual nominal GDP used by the source for each year. Multiplying these ratios by six or interpreting them against two-month GDP would be misleading. Any different table or edition must be matched by identity, reference period and denominator before comparison; a difference in wording or rounding alone does not establish a statistical revision.

ENCC interpretation

A stronger primary balance alongside an overall deficit highlights the place of interest in fiscal adjustment. Sustainability monitoring should relate execution flows to the structure and maturities of the debt stock while preserving each measure’s period and unit. Adding end-June debt to a two-month deficit would not produce a meaningful common total. Nor does a primary surplus alone guarantee a declining debt ratio: financing costs, growth and valuation changes also matter. This article provides an auditable bridge rather than a full-year forecast.