GEM 2025/2026 “From Uncertainty to Opportunity”: an extended reading of Egypt’s position on the global entrepreneurship map — with a direct comparison to GEM 2024/2025 

0) Publishing header 

• Section: Newsroom ▸ International Reports ▸ Entrepreneurship
• Content type: Report / International release (EN)
• Publisher: Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) / Global Entrepreneurship Research Association (GERA)
• Release tag: 2025/2026 (publication year: 2026)
• Upload/availability date on GEM official page: 2026-02-26
• Coverage (2025/2026 cycle): 53 participating economies
• Copyright note: © 2026 the authors and GERA (treated as copyrighted content unless explicitly licensed otherwise)

1) What does GEM measure, and why does it matter for competitiveness?

1.1 Adult Population Survey (APS)

• Sample: a representative sample of adults (typically ≥ 2,000 individuals per economy).
• Measures: entrepreneurial intentions, early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA), established business ownership, motives, job expectations, innovation and sustainability orientation, and technology/AI expectations.

1.2 National Expert Survey (NES)

• Expert panel: a national panel of experts (a common minimum is ≥ 36 experts per economy).
• They assess: 13 Entrepreneurial Framework Conditions (EFCs), including: entrepreneurial finance; government policies (support/taxes/bureaucracy); government programs; entrepreneurship education at school and post-school; R&D transfer to market; commercial and professional infrastructure; ease of market entry (dynamics/burdens/regulation); physical infrastructure; social and cultural norms.

1.3 NECI (the main index)

• Calculation: NECI is computed as a simple average of the 13 EFC scores on a 0–10 scale.
• Adequacy threshold: 5.0 is treated as the “adequacy” cutoff; below 5.0 implies the ecosystem is assessed as less than adequate to support sustainable entrepreneurship.

1.4 Why does it matter for competitiveness?

Because the report directly links ecosystem quality (finance/regulation/market access/skills/innovation) to startups’ ability to survive and become established businesses—this is the chain that determines entrepreneurship’s contribution to productivity, innovation, employment, and broadening the exporter base.

2) Key global messages in the 2025/2026 edition (without repetition)

• Survival Gap: higher early-stage activity does not automatically translate into more established businesses; “starting is easier than surviving” when finance, skills, regulation, and market access conditions are insufficient.
• AI Readiness Gap: divergence in AI adoption/expectations across economies may create a two-tier entrepreneurial economy.
• Purpose-driven entrepreneurship is expanding: on average, 84% of early-stage entrepreneurs now consider social/environmental impacts in decision-making, and 51% cite “making a difference” as a motive.
• Entrepreneurial finance remains a widespread constraint: in 36 of 53 economies, “availability/access to entrepreneurial finance” is rated as inadequate.
• Entrepreneurship education at school is a recurring global weakness: it remains the lowest-rated condition in 33 of 53 economies.
• Fear of failure is a constraint: it deters about 2 in 5 adults who see good opportunities from starting; meanwhile, those who previously exited a business are more likely to start again.
• Only a few achieve “full adequacy” across all conditions: only 4 of 53 economies met/exceeded adequacy across all 13 conditions: India, Lithuania, Saudi Arabia, UAE.
• Top of the NECI table: for the fifth consecutive year, the UAE is ranked as the most supportive environment for starting a new business under NECI.

3) Egypt in GEM 2025/2026: a focused quantitative reading

3.1 The main index (NECI)

3.2 Conditions above adequacy in Egypt (≥ 5.0) — with scores

3.3 Most binding constraint (lowest performance)

• Entrepreneurial Education at School: 2.5

3.4 Conditions where Egypt falls into the globally weaker tier (as stated in the country profile)

• Post-school entrepreneurial education: 51
• R&D Transfers: 48
• Government entrepreneurial programs: 44

3.5 Behavioral / market signals linked to Egypt in the current edition

• Fear of failure (opportunity): 59.7 (indicator/value in Egypt profile).
• Customers outside the country (%TEA): decline from 21.4 (2024) to 6.9 (2025) per the appendix table.
• Digital / AI signals (in the Egypt profile as stated in the report):
  • Awareness of the need to develop/apply AI solutions: 6.6 (upward trend vs the prior year in the country profile).
  • Priority of sustainability in business decisions (expert indicator): 3.9 (downward trend vs the prior year in the country profile).

4) Direct comparison with last year’s edition (GEM 2024/2025)

4.1 NECI comparison: score and rank (noting different numbers of economies)

4.2 Component comparison: stable strengths + a relative expansion

According to ENCC’s GEM 2024/2025 piece:

• Egypt’s relative strengths concentrate in market dynamics and physical infrastructure (as two pillars above adequacy).
• Critical weaknesses: early entrepreneurship education, R&D transfer to market, and supportive policies/government programs.

In GEM 2025/2026:

• Market dynamics and physical infrastructure remain above adequacy,
• a relative expansion appears by adding social and cultural norms to the above-adequacy conditions (5.1),
• the strongest constraint remains entrepreneurship education at school (2.5), with some conditions still in Egypt’s globally weaker tier (post-school education, R&D transfers, government programs).

4.3 APS indicators documented by ENCC in GEM 2024/2025 (to infer the gap between “readiness” and “conversion into activity”)

In ENCC’s GEM 2024/2025 coverage, the following APS indicators for Egypt were presented (as newsroom estimates):

• Early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA): ≈ 5.1% of adults (in the tier 48 of 51).
• Gender gap in TEA: men ≈ 7.6% / women ≈ 2.6%.
• Intentions to start a business within 3 years: around 40% of adults.
• ENCC analytical takeaway: broad opportunity/skills perception, but fear of failure and institutional ecosystem barriers limit conversion of perceptions into operating ventures.

5) What does this mean for policy and execution in Egypt? (one coherent package, without repetition)

Based on GEM’s logic, ENCC’s diagnosis in last year’s edition, and the signals in the current edition, an execution agenda emerges through five connected packages:

1. Mainstream entrepreneurship in the education system (school → university → post-university)
   • An immediate priority because “entrepreneurship education at school” is the weakest condition (2.5) and a recurring global constraint.
   • Practical execution: applied content, student companies, teacher guides, and university incubators linked to the private sector.
2. Improve the legislative/procedural framework and reduce compliance cost
   • Simplify business formation and licensing, review fees and taxes on SMEs/startups, and provide clear guidance pathways.
3. Raise the quality of supporting government programs and measure impact
   • Unify the program map and eligibility criteria, and focus on outcome indicators (survival/growth/jobs/expansion) rather than inputs alone.
4. Build institutional bridges between research and market (R&D → Market)
   • Because R&D transfers are a constraint for Egypt, practical pathways are needed: IP screening, prototyping, market validation, and co-financing to turn applied research into startups and products.
5. Close two intersecting gaps: gender + AI
   • Gender: tailored programs for women entrepreneurs (finance/guarantees/non-financial services/mentoring) to narrow the TEA gap.
   • AI: move from “awareness” to “adoption” via measurable use cases for SMEs/startups, training and access to tools/platforms, and domestic/external digital markets.

6) Operational roadmap (6–24 months) — measurable execution wording

7) Measurement considerations and data limits (to prevent misinterpretation)

• GEM is based on field surveys and expert assessments; it complements official statistics and does not replace them.
• NECI is an average that can hide internal variation; therefore, policy design should unpack it across the 13 conditions.
• Edition-to-edition comparisons require attention to changes in the number of participating economies or methodological details.
• The report does not provide an official regional rank for Egypt within MENA/Africa in the available presentation; reliance should be on tables/index and country profiles.

8) Official links (for the reader)

• GEM official page for the 2025/2026 edition (download + summary):
  https://www.gemconsortium.org/report/gem-20252026-global-report-from-uncertainty-to-opportunity-3
• GEM news item on the 2025/2026 report launch (26 February 2026):
  https://www.gemconsortium.org/news/27-years-of-impact%3A-gem-to-launch-the-2025%2F2026-global-report-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B
• ENCC coverage of GEM 2024/2025 (annual comparison reference):
  https://encc-eg.org/pressroom/press.aspx?id=295

GEM 2025/2026 official page (download + summary):
https://www.gemconsortium.org/report/gem-20252026-global-report-from-uncertainty-to-opportunity-3

GEM launch news (26 Feb 2026):
https://www.gemconsortium.org/news/27-years-of-impact%3A-gem-to-launch-the-2025%2F2026-global-report-%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B%E2%80%8B

ENCC coverage of GEM 2024/2025 (comparison reference):
https://encc-eg.org/pressroom/press.aspx?id=295